In the contemporary international system, power has gradually shifted from physical spaces to the information sphere, and media operation, accompanied by emerging technologies such as generative artificial intelligence and deepfake, have become one of the main axes of geopolitical competition. These developments have challenged new dimensions of national security (cognitive and epistemic) and identity discourse. To fill the gap, this research seeks to map alternative futures of media operations and their systemic consequences on the triplet of “national security”, “identity discourse” and “international diplomacy”. To this end, using a qualitative-futuristic approach, a combined Delphi method (with participation of 30 experts in the three fields of media, security, and international relations) and scenario-based planning were used. The findings suggest that the two critical uncertainties of “approach to information space governance” (centralized versus decentralized) and “nature of media competition ecosystem” (geopolitical competition versus intelligent coexistence) are the main axes shaping the possible futures. From the intersection of these two axes, four distinct scenarios were extracted: “algorithms as latent power”, “geopolitical competition in the information space”, “active cognitive defense doctrine”, and “resilient media ecosystem”. Analysis of these scenarios suggests that the most probable future will be a combination of geopolitical tensions and algorithmic hegemony, while it is only in the resilient scenario that national security, identity discourse, and diplomatic power are synergistically strengthened. By redefining concepts such as cognitive security and sharp power in the context of futures studies, this research provides a theoretical framework for future studies at the intersection of media, security, and identity.